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As Frodo said after destroying the Ring while sitting on a boulder surrounded by a river of lava in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: It was executed.

After two postponements due to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, the gap between voting for nominations for the 97th Academy Awards has officially ended. While the Producers Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America, and other major associations have offered some insight into which films might dominate the Oscars this 12 months, one factor is certain: The theme of the Oscars will almost certainly bring surprise.

For seasoned awards experts, predicting the Oscars has always involved careful calculations, spirited debate and private, off-the-record conversations with Oscar voters. These conversations are usually filled with insider insights and candid opinions, but have taken on a unique tone this 12 months. After wildfires ravaged parts of Los Angeles, many experts were hesitant to succeed. Astonishingly, voters initiated contact, mostly with compassionate inquiries about the well-being of journalists and their families — a touching reminder that even in Hollywood, humanity transcends glitz.

After pleasantries were exchanged, the conversation naturally turned to movies, which provided a welcome distraction from the chaos. For voters, discussing movies has increasingly become a source of comfort in difficult times. In these exchanges, developments and insights about the competition over the 12 months began to form. From potential Best Profile front-runners to sudden snubs, here are seven key takeaways from our conversations with Academy members, as well as some burning questions as we prepare for nominations to be announced on January 23.

Are voters finished with The Brutalists?

Brady Corbet's The Beast has emerged as a strong contender in this 12-month race with a Golden Globe victory. However, some voters admitted they “didn't finish it” or “didn't wrap it up,” citing its demanding running time and sheer amount of material. While this certainly won't hurt the film's nomination chances — many are counting on it to be a solid eight nods at least — it might explain why supporting actress hopeful Felicity Jones ) played a key role until the second half of the year but was not nominated. No extra traction is gained.

A Ballon d'Or win still matters.

While the debate over the relevance of the Golden Globes continues, a win at the awards show is undoubtedly significant. Many voters admitted the Golden Globes influenced their viewing lists, pushing films like Fernanda Torres' “I'm Still Here” and Kieran Culkin's “True Pain” into the spotlight. Meanwhile, high-profile contenders like Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez” and Edward Berger’s “Conclave” solidified their must-see status thanks to wins in specific categories. For a film teetering on voters' radar, this recognition could mean the difference between a nomination and a miss.

Critics and Audiences ≠ Academy Voters

Over the course of these 12 months, divisions among critics, audiences and Academy members became evident. For example, critical darlings like RaMell Ross' “Nickel Boys” and Mike Leigh's “Laborious Truths” have struggled to turn their momentum into voter enthusiasm. On the other hand, “Emilia Pérez” – which has a low Rotten Tomatoes score (76% from critics, 40% from audiences) – is widely expected to dominate the nominations and will undoubtedly be Became the most nominated non-English language film in Oscar history.

Likewise, James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic “Total Unknown” (79% on Rotten Tomatoes) received an enthusiastic reception from Academy members despite poor reception elsewhere Not good. These situations underscore how Oscar judges operate on their own terms, driven by personal style, nostalgia and cinematic resonance rather than external indicators.

The strange case of “class fraud” and possible superficial changes

“Class fraud” has become a buzzword this awards season, with social media and voters alike calling on seemingly leading acts to support expanded awards odds. Zoe Saldana in 'Emilia Perez', Kieran Culkin in 'True Pain' and Ariana Grande in 'The Fall' are just some of the ones being discussed Examples of performances that are promoted as supporting roles, regardless of significant acting time.

“I like them, but we are trustworthy and she is a leader,” said one department member who emerged, referring to Saldanha. These dynamics could lead to sudden results, split votes or shocking rankings, echoing previous Oscar shocks.

This leads me to offer some possible scenarios (not predictions…yet?) about what the nominations might look like on nomination morning. Bear with me; I'm a journalist trying to use math to clarify something (not my thing).

The first outing of “Emilia Pérez” was business as usual, with Carla Sofía Gascon becoming the first transgender actor to be nominated for a starring role and Saldana holding on to her lead in supporting roles.

But what if there’s a twist?

If we see the latest Kate Winslet (“The Reader”) level switch, Saldana's performance alongside her co-star could be the recognized first since Geena Davis A partner. and Susan Sarandon’s Thelma and Louise (1991).

Another end result was that Gascon was left off the list entirely, leaving Saldana alone as a supporting actress to emblematic of the film. According to Academy guidelines, if a certain efficiency receives a maximum of 5 points from each front-runner and supports similar efficiencies, the party that receives the extra votes is the nominated efficiency. With the race for Best Actress so tight, it might be interesting to see how the votes are spread out among all the contenders.

The final scenario, which happens to seem perhaps the most far-fetched, but also the most certain of all these hypotheses, is a reprise of Judas and the Black Messiah (2021) that has LaKieth Stanfield People in the campaign were shocked. As the leading man all season long, he was surprisingly confirmed to have a supporting role alongside his eventual Oscar-winning co-star Daniel Kaluuya. Following the 2021 nominations, I explained why this happened.

In a conversation with an attending department member, after I asked them if they voted for Gascón, they responded, “Oh, sure, yes, right?”

When told that Gascón was leading and Saldanha was supporting, they were quick to shout, “Yes?!” I don't know where they ended up voting, but that probably set off the alarm. How will this change the campaign and who will be eliminated? I can't even wrap my mind around that.

Will girls and POC be left out of the greatest directors?

The most successful directing classes have long been a difficult place for girls and other people of color to break into, and this 12 months is no different. Although Jon M. Chu (“The Fall”), Ramel Rose (“Nickel Boy”), Coralie Fajit (“Material”) and Payal Kapadia (“All Us”) Everything that is considered moderate”) is so popular, but no one thinks – about locks. The final spot seems destined as Jacques Audiard, Brady Corbet, Edward Berger and Sean Baker all appear to be in contention. It would go to someone like James Mangold or Denis Villeneuve — safer, more traditional picks — or a possible wildcard.

Could Clint Eastwood's “Juror No. 2” deliver a shocking final line?

Among the many surprises this season, Clint Eastwood's “Juror No. 2” got a lot of buzz from voters, more than I expected, and there's no doubt he's the last one we're all trying to nail down A strong contender for best image. The film, rumored to be Eastwood's final assignment, won the admiration of voters in the producer and executive sector, many of whom saw their votes as a symbolic gesture to the legendary filmmaker. It’s also a “middle finger” to Warner Bros. This is a limited launch. Just including it might be amazing, but that might be enough. On top of that, this could be the film's only nomination, its first since Oxbow (1943) received a single nomination for Best Picture. Maybe that's absurd enough to make sense.

Jamie Lee Curtis is the best Oscar contender right now.

If there were a contender for an Oscar, Jamie Lee Curtis would win in a landslide. The veteran actress won her first Oscar for “Everything at Once” and has been working tirelessly to promote her co-star Pamela Anderson and her film “The Last Showgirl.” Curtis' genuine enthusiasm and tireless help did not go unnoticed, with voters praising her charisma. After receiving nominations from both the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, Curtis is poised for a second Oscar nomination. A studio wants to give her an assignment to become the frontrunner for what you consider to be your best image. She will get you to the finish line.

Voters love challengers, but are there enough of them?

Luca Guadagnino's steamy tennis drama Challengers, starring Zendaya, has quietly built a passionate fan base among voters. The film's combination of physical activity and sexual rigidity resonated with young Academy members. However, its likelihood of being considered remains uncertain after the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), the PGA and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) were eliminated. Its greatest scenes seem to fall into the category of actual script and rating (which it won at the Golden Globes) and maybe even greatest image. However, its name is powerful.

Voters are always looking for “genuinely feel-good” movies to watch.

From these conversations, one factor becomes increasingly clear: Voters are constantly looking for movies that provide a source of joy, escapism and uplift. After a steady stream of unhealthy messages from wildfires every week, especially those primarily in Los Angeles, many people who found it interesting to watch two movies began turning to what they considered “easy viewing.” This includes people's nostalgia for “A Full Unknown” and the youthful and pink musicality of “Depraved”.

My principle is that this feeling may have profoundly influenced some global choices. Most of the 15 shortlisted candidates are considered “miserable” by some voters. Still, it's worth noting the impact this might have on a film counterpart to Germany's The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which is 2 hours and 40 minutes long and is undeniably grim (albeit a good ), may not be a priority for voters when they vote.

The final forecast is to drop next week. Until then, happy predictions.